Lowetide: Why these 6 Oilers trends offer hope for continued playoff success (2024)

It had been one generation since the Edmonton Oilers won a game during the NHL’s conference finals.

This year, the club has two wins and two losses in the series versus the Dallas Stars.

In accomplishing this rare feat, many of Edmonton’s players have delivered beyond expectations during the 16 playoff games this spring.

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Here are six facts about the Oilers’ run that have the team in position to beat Dallas and earn a berth in the Stanley Cup Final.

Knoblauch’s Bowman-esque roster decisions

The biggest surprise is head coach Kris Knoblauch’s uncanny ability to switch out players successfully at pivotal moments.

It became a main theme in the series versus the Vancouver Canucks. The coach switched out goaltender Stuart Skinner for Calvin Pickard and then back again. He also shuffled the second and third pairings, sent veteran Corey Perry to the press box and moved young winger Dylan Holloway up to play with Leon Draisaitl at five-on-five.

It all worked, and Edmonton won the series.

Game 4 in the Dallas series, with the season on the line, Knoblauch moved Perry back into the lineup, along with Ryan McLeod and Philip Broberg. Exiting the lineup were Warren Foegele, Sam Carrick and Vincent Desharnais.

It worked again.

Knoblauch enjoyed a strong season behind the bench for the Oilers after taking over for Jay Woodcroft in November. However, he didn’t establish himself as a strong in-game manager or a coach who messed with the lineup game to game.

The tweak in strategy is a welcome surprise for fans.

McDavid-Bouchard finds another gear

During the regular season, captain Connor McDavid and defenceman Evan Bouchard were on the ice for 830 minutes at five-on-five. The two men, often joined by Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman and one of Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, posted a 64 percent goal share, averaging 4.55 goals per 60.

These are sensational numbers.

In the playoffs, McDavid and Bouchard have played 232 minutes together. The Oilers have scored 71 percent (20-8) of the goals while they’re on the ice, which is an average of 5.17 goals per 60.

The playoffs involve playing a higher level of competition, but the dynamic duo has increased their goals per 60 and goal share at five-on-five.

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Special teams supernova

During the regular season, the Oilers had a goal differential of 71-58 (55 percent) on special teams.

The team’s power play scored 64 goals with the man advantage and allowed five short-handed tallies. The PK unit allowed 53 goals while scoring seven.

In the postseason, Edmonton’s power play and penalty kill have been enormous net positives over the first 16 games.

The power play has scored 15 goals and allowed zero.

The penalty kill has scored one goal and allowed three, which is a statistic that borders on the impossible.

That’s 16-3, or 84 percent goal share on special teams.

That’s Stanley Cup quality.

Shot and goal suppression

Edmonton’s commitment to suppressing shots in all game states has been a major piece of the puzzle this spring.

Including even strength, penalty kill and power play, the team allowed 27.8 shots per game in the regular season.

So far in the playoffs, the shots allowed in all disciplines have been reduced to 24.

The team is blocking more shots, contesting every play, backchecking deep into the zone and causing turnovers.

It’s a noticeable and impressive uptick from the regular season performance.

Best players

An old adage has a team’s best players needing to perform at established levels in order to ensure wins. If your best players are your best players, success will follow.

Through the season and playoffs, Edmonton’s best players have been McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman and Bouchard.

During the regular season, the four men accounted for 145 individual goals: Hyman (54), Draisaitl (41), McDavid (32) and Bouchard (18) all delivered exceptional offence for Edmonton.

Those numbers represent 1.77 goals per game from just four players.

In the playoffs, Hyman (13), Draisaitl (10), Bouchard (6) and McDavid (4) have scored a total of 33 goals in 16 games. That’s over two per game and represents an impressive increase from the regular season when considering the quality of competition.

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No one could have expected this group to improve the collective by 0.29 goals per game.

Brown’s emergence

One of the difficult stories for the organization this season was Connor Brown’s slow progression.

He was signed to a bonus-laden contract that allowed general manager Ken Holland to fit him under the salary cap, but represented a major drag ($3.225 million bonus) for the 2024-25 cap.

All through the regular season, Brown struggled badly and fans voiced displeasure at the player’s production and the albatross cap number that awaited the team over the summer of 2024.

Brown scored just 0.96 points per game at five-on-five during the regular season. That total landed him No. 291 among 308 forwards who played 700-plus minutes in the game state. His goal share was 41 percent.

In the playoffs, though, he has been a different player, making an impact at even strength and on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five, Brown is posting 1.95 points per 60 through 10 games and owns a 75 percent goal share.

Brown hasn’t played in every playoff game but overall has had an impact on even strength and penalty killing success.

Bottom line

The Oilers are playing with a new maturity this season, one that allows 1-0 shutouts (versus the Kings) and comebacks from multi-goal deficits (most recently Game 4 against the Stars).

The attention to detail runs from the top to bottom.

Several times during the playoffs McDavid went to extremes to stop sorties into the Edmonton end, skating miles to alter the trajectory of plays.

Draisaitl makes fewer dangerous passes at the blue line.

If the best players on the team are devoted to team play, the rest of the roster often falls into line.

This appears to be the case with the Oilers.

There are no guarantees for any team in the final four, with all clubs capable of winning the Stanley Cup.

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Edmonton’s best represent the very best in the game. These men are playing a 200-foot game with great determination.

The Oilers have enjoyed some surprising spikes from players and coaches during this run.

The series against the Stars teetered between hope and despair in Game 4, but the win breathed new life into what is becoming a classic series.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)

Lowetide: Why these 6 Oilers trends offer hope for continued playoff success (1)Lowetide: Why these 6 Oilers trends offer hope for continued playoff success (2)

Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic's Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcast. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide

Lowetide: Why these 6 Oilers trends offer hope for continued playoff success (2024)

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